November 2009
Data from the major economies continued to point to a global recovery and equity markets progressed over the month. However, this recent advance in
stocks is beginning to show signs of abating. Dubai World’s attempt to reschedule its debt is not likely to mark a new phase in the global crisis, yet has
compounded investor focus on a series of stresses in other countries.
Gold reached US$1,195 an ounce in November, oil hit US$81 a barrel and the VIX index of equity volatility fell back to its lowest level for a year.
The Federal Reserve confirmed its commitment to support accommodative monetary policy for an ‘extended period’, and maintained a rate of 0-0.25% this month. The Fed will closely watch resource
utilisation, as well as inflation expectations and trends in the coming months for signs that the real economy’s rebound is self sustaining.
In the U.S. the Institute of Supply Management’s manufacturing surveys hit a cycle high in November; however the new orders series is below its peak,
suggesting a decline of momentum in industrial production growth. In addition unemployment rose to a fresh 26-year high of 10.2%, impacting confidence.